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Recent Developments
There is so much going on at present that it is quite difficult to keep
up
with what is happening and to consider just how all these developments
feed
into the crisis in Zimbabwe. Lets just take a few and examine how they
are
likely to impact on our immediate future.
The governing alliance in South Africa is made up of three
organizations -
the Confederation of South African Trade Unions and the South African
Communist Party as well as the African National Congress. Of the three,
the
ANC has the smallest direct membership, Cosatu, the largest, with its
membership running to millions of workers. The SACP is a relic of the
past
but still commands a significant following - probably larger than the
Pan
African Congress. It also supplies some of the main players and
thinkers in
the SA government.
Both Cosatu and the SACP have been moving away from support for the
position
of Zanu PF in Zimbabwe for some time. They have developed a better
understanding of the position of the MDC and are now actively
supporting
political strategies that will secure some form of democratic
transition
here. The recent visit to Zimbabwe by senior delegations of both
organisations were undertaken in the spirit of fact finding tours to
confirm
their own understandings of the situation here. The SACP visit went off
without hitch, but the Cosatu delegation was given the boot -
literally.
As a consequence of these developments the two major players in the ANC
camp, are now firmly committed to supporting the effort to secure free
and
fair elections next year. How the South African government will play
this
new development is difficult to see through the mist of all the spin
that is
going on, but there can be no doubt that this represents a major
diplomatic
set back for the Zanu PF and for those who support them in the SA
administration.
Mbeki will have to take these developments into consideration or face
the
prospect that he will lose some control over events as they affect the
SA/Zimbabwe relationship. Cosatu has the power to put significant
autonomous
pressure on Zimbabwe and the SACP simply cannot be ignored inside the
South
African corridors of power. The recent improvement in the relationship
with
the MDC has shown that Mbeki is moving his own position. The treatment
of
Morgan Tsvangirai when visiting African Heads of State in Africa is
also
revealing. These things do not happen in Africa without serious
decisions
being taken. In South Africa Morgan was given substantial status for
the
first time - and Mugabe was furious. Morgan has now been received by
the
Presidents of 6 countries, with full honors that such visits normally
attract to significant visitors and this again reveals a changing
climate in
Africa.
Commentators in South Africa who have criticised Morgan's diplomatic
offensive are simply mouthing the views of the Zimbabwe propaganda
machine
who are enraged that having let the lion out of the cage, he has gone
hunting.
There can be no doubt that we are now in for a second Bush term - one
in
which the conservatives in the US will be very much in the driving
seat.
Regime change in Afghanistan is now almost complete and represents an
astonishing military and diplomatic achievement. The Iraq situation is
getting the same treatment. In the Ivory Coast, the French are doing
their
own bit of political surgery.
There are no signs of any shift in the Bush administrations strategies
in
Africa. This means that although we will not be a top priority, we will
not
be ignored. Just look at the global team that now confronts the Mugabe
regime. In the USA, Bush; in the UK, Blair; in the SADC, Mauritius and
Botswana hold the key leadership positions. In the AU, Obasanjo of
Nigeria
is in charge. In the G8, and the EU, Blair will be in the key
leadership
role next year - when it matters. Heavens, if the MDC was to choose a
team
to confront the regime here diplomatically, we could not have done a
better
job.
This translates into even more pressure on Mbeki. How he will react is
difficult to tell, but he has moved his position and it is difficult to
see
how he cannot keep on moving if he is to maintain his own position as
the
major crime buster and fixer in Africa.
Next week on Tuesday the Agriculture Portfolio committee in Parliament
is
going to table a report which we understand will completely contradict
Mugabe's claim that "we have grown 2,4 million tonnes of maize and do
not
need your food." The committee was the product of a slip up by the Zanu
whip
who failed to get a majority into parliament when the debate on the
food
situation initiated by the MDC shadow Minister of Agriculture Rensen
Gasela
took place. The resolution proposed by Rensen was passed and the
Committee,
chaired by a rather decent Zanu MP, has now completed its
investigations -
with the grudging participation of the Ministries and the GMB.
The committee concluded that only 600 000 tonnes of maize was in fact
produced this past season - less than in 2003 and only a quarter of the
Mugabe estimate. With opening stocks of about 200 000 tonnes we had
enough
food for about 5 months. Since then we have been importing steadily
from the
region and further abroad. Fortunately for us, South Africa has a 2
million
tonne surplus and if we need food in a hurry it is not far away. Maize
is
also a cheap product and we can always find the money to import stocks
if
the need is there.
But what this confirms is that it is the objective of the Mugabe regime
to
restrict basic food supplies to government controlled channels. This
situation will be in place by the end of the year and the whole system
is
ready to be used in the Zanu campaign in 2005. We have seen some signs
of
how they will do it - in Chipinge they stopped all stores carrying the
basic
staple, maize meal. Then they allocated maize to the Zanu PF candidate
for
the area (Zanu has not won a seat in Chipinge in recent years) who sold
it
through groups of young Zanu thugs who took a margin. Both the
candidate and
the "Green Bombers" made money. If you wanted maize, you had to become
a
member of Zanu and attend Zanu functions.
If anyone wanted confirmation that the Mugabe regime was not wiling to
change its ways in any way, you only have to read Hansard, the daily
verbatim record of proceedings in Parliament. The action taken against
Roy
Bennett - a clear violation of the regulations controlling Parliament
and
also Zimbabwe law, just to remove a political thorn in the flesh of
Zanu PF,
is a clear indication of how far they are prepared to go. Chinamasa's
remark
to Dave Coltart the "he was next." Is a chilling reminder of just how
narrow-minded and vindictive these people are. Well, they need to
remember
"what goes around, come around."
But if you examine the proceedings right now - the Zanu machine is in
full
swing - changes to AIPPA to give the Minister more power, Changes to
the
electoral Act to further entrench the Zanu monopoly of control over the
whole process - deliberately flaunting the agreements Mugabe signed
just 2
months ago in Mauritius. Then the statements by Ministers in response
the
MDC questions - "we will never allow the MDC access to the State
controlled
media, never!" Democracy, they do not understand the word, let alone
the
practice.
So what does this all mean for those of us on the ground in this
firefight?
The Bennett story plus the failed votes in Parliament and the tightened
grip
on food, shows that we continue to lose battles, but the overall
message is
that we are winning the war. And in the longer term, that is what
counts.
The Chinese saying "he who rides a Tiger, cannot get off!" Certainly
applies
to the Mugabe regime. It's good to belong to the Tiger.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 10th November 2004.
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