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The End of the Mugabe Era
In 1973 a small group of us in what was then Rhodesia, got together to
do a
detailed analysis of the situation that faced us. We had been under UN
mandatory sanctions for 8 years and at war with our own people for two
years. All of us were well informed and well educated. We were all
under 35
and constituted what I still believe to be amongst the most outstanding
young men of our time in our country.
After several meetings we drafted a brief report, signed it and sent it
to
the Prime Minister, Ian Smith with a request that he meet us to discus
our
conclusions. We had concluded that we could not win the war, that time
was
running out and that if a deal was not struck in the near future,
eventually
power would be taken away from Smith and his cohorts and we would be
left to
mercy of our history and our time.
We had a prompt reply and the Prime Minister agreed to meet us at a
private
home in Highlands. He arrived on time and then spent two hours
listening to
us and debating the issues we had raised. But in the end he rejected
our
conclusions and said, "We are winning this war, right is on our side
and
eventually we will get through our difficulties and gain acceptance of
what
we stand for." For the majority of our group it was the end - out of 35
only
8 remained in the country after 6 months. The others simply said we
cannot
go on throwing our lives away on a lost cause - they believed we were
right
and they took themselves off to pursue their careers and lives
elsewhere.
Looking back on that time and recalling that document, we were
absolutely
spot on. Three years later - almost to the day, Smith was in Pretoria
capitulating to the strong men of the day and from then on we were not
out
of the woods, but we were on the way to a final resolution of our
conflict.
But from September the 23rd 1976, Ian Smith no longer controlled the
destiny
of the country he had led since 1964.
On the surface Mugabe and Smith are chalk and cheese and yet there are
striking similarities. I often say to fellow Zimbabweans that Mugabe is
a
"black" Smith. Hard, unflinching, stubborn, harsh on his opponents.
Mugabe has been in power longer than Smith - 25 years as against 16 but
he
now nears the end of his time in power. For those who have held power
and
done terrible things, such a moment is a time of terror. To let go
means to
fall and such a fall would be absolute. So they hang on, persuading
themselves that they can win through and forcing others by naked power
to
stay with them to the end. Some go with dignity - Smith did, Hitler did
not.
But eventually they all go.
I remember Malawi in the dying days of Dr. Banda - of cocktail parties
in
the capitol where people shrank from talking politics - any sort of
politics. Where real fear stalked the land and the aging tyrant - short
and
stooped with his flywhisk held onto power by the skin of his teeth. For
Malawians in those days it seemed as if he would never go or let go but
eventually he did and his shattered country could start to build again.
Mugabe has done just about everything he could do to hang onto power -
he
has subverted our justice system, our electoral system is a sham, he
controls the media totally and has intimidated the opposition and civil
society. He has created a political army and police force and a huge
secret
service that monitors all aspects of our lives. In pursuit of safety he
has
destroyed the economy and cut himself off from the rest of the world.
Now he
is doing the unforgivable - he is denying the absolute poor of this
country
the right to earn a living and their right to shelter and food.
Even before this latest madness, we were reeling from the events of the
past
five years. Our life expectancy has halved, agricultural output is down
by
half, exports by two thirds, and incomes are a fraction of what they
were 20
years ago. Hundreds of thousands are dying every year and a similar
number
flee the country for greener pastures as economic and political
refugees.
More people have died in armed conflict under Mugabe than under Smith -
and
that remarkable achievement was made without the benefit of a decent
war.
I do not know how many will die in the next few weeks - but they will
run to
their thousands as hungry and thirsty people go to sleep in sub zero
temperatures on open ground next to the ruble of their homes and small
businesses. They will mainly be the very vulnerable - the elderly, the
very
young but they will include many who are sick from Aids and HIV related
diseases. To Mugabe these are "rubbish", to the Commissioner of Police
-
former Deputy Head of Interpol, they are "maggots". But to God they are
the
"blessed" and those who abuse them are condemned in the strongest terms
in
Scripture.
I estimate that 1 million small businesses have been destroyed in this
exercise - their capital stolen and their premises burnt. This will
deny 3
million people their sole means of making a living. I estimate that to
date
1,5 million people have been made homeless and am told that over 300
000
children have dropped out of school. The impact on the formal sector
will be
very significant and may well accelerate the present decline in
national
GDP - that is if the fuel crisis does not simply close us down
completely, a
possibility that now seems more than likely.
We arrived at our conclusions about the end of the Smith era in 1973 on
the
basis of a premise that no one can fight the whole world and his own
people
and get away with it for very long. Smith lasted 12 years, Mugabe will
go
sooner. It was not the war that toppled Smith - it was global consensus
that
he had simply become too expensive to be allowed to carry on. Mugabe
has now
done enough to ensure that he to, like all tyrants in history is about
to
go. Will he go with dignity? I doubt it, he has now done enough to his
own
people for them to turn on him when the time comes and it will not be
pleasant.
We all want to be remembered for what we achieved in our short time on
earth. Mugabe has destroyed his legacy and will not be remembered for
what
he did in the struggle for independence - even though that too was over
the
bodies of his own associates at the time - he will be remembered for
Gukurahundi and Murambatsvina.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 23rd June 2005
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