A new year has dawned, I think all Zimbabweans suffered over this past festive season from a hangover caused by the unscheduled departure of Robert Gabriel Mugabe from the Presidency. Who will forget the amazing and unplanned outpouring of public feeling after the Military led coup. What a street party after his resignation was received by Parliament. Some Mugabe loyalists are saying that the rural people are mourning his passing - not a bit of it, the celebrations engulfed even the most remote corners of Zimbabwe.
Now what? The harsh reality that all of us must face is that over his tenure in office, Robert Mugabe built a dynasty that controlled virtually every aspect of life in this country. In business, you could not operate anything larger than a tuck shop without his say so, all contracts were controlled, his word was final on all matters and everyone who worked with him or for him, feared his retribution and vindictive character.
When he came out of Prison in 1974 after ten years in detention, I had lunch with him at the Munomatapa Hotel in the central business district of Harare. He then struck me as a radical who was totally committed to the armed conflict as a means of achieving Independence and control over the State. His views of the way forward resembled, in an uncanny way, what we later saw in Cambodia where the Khmer revolution in 1975 caused the death of perhaps 3 million people, including many intellectuals and specialists and the depopulation of the Cities which were 'centers of regressive political thought and capitalism'. 10 days after that meeting he was crossing the border in Nyanga and joining the Zanla forces in Mozambique.
His path to power in newly independent Zimbabwe in 1980 was a turbulent and sometimes, violent one. I have no doubt that anyone who stood in his way was skating on thin ice and that the death of his main competitor for control of the post war machine created in exile to fight the war of Independence - Josiah Tongogara, was not killed in a car accident, he was murdered. The same fate awaited his main military commander, Mujuru, many years later after he challenged Mugabe.
But the overall outcome of his years in near total control of the State in Zimbabwe, was the creation of a regime which resembled in many ways the one in Europe that he admired most - that of East Germany when it was part of the Soviet Empire. He sought and secured total control - all arms of the State, what was taught to children in school, even who could be treated in a State funded hospital. He secured control over all major business activity and was feted and treated as a near god by many close to the seat of power. The image of people crawling along the floor to greet him or serve him tea, will not be forgotten as they characterized what he prized most, total subservience to power.
In the beginning he was an austere figure, working out in the gym every day, not drinking or smoking and living a frugal life except for the symbols of power and privilege. However, by 1985, the cloak began to slip, the genocidal campaign which lasted 4 years was underway against his sole rival for power - Joshua Nkomo, he had started using the Reserve Bank as 'his' bank and corrupt forces began to surround him and exploit the centers of power he had created and controlled. Any attempts at maintaining any form of multi-party democracy were crushed.
When finally, he was challenged for power by the MDC in 2000 and Morgan Tsvangirai emerged as a real competitor for the Presidency, he was forced to fight back and to begin the process of boosting his political regime with military power and influence. As the capacity of the monolith of the Party, Zanu PF waned, it was replaced by the increasing sophistication and reach of the armed forces. By 2013, it was the Army that effectively controlled the State and ran what was left of Zanu PF. After 2008, Zimbabwe was, governed by a Military Junta led by the Joint Operations Command, a structure created by Ian Smith to fight the war of liberation and maintained afterwards as Mugabe's principle center of power and control. During the GNU the MDC was not allowed anywhere near these centers of power. The computer servers that controlled the elections were maintained at Army Headquarters.
I was not surprised at all when the recent coup took place, at the high level of professionalism, sophistication, power and capacity of the armed forces. They moved against Mugabe at 10 in the morning and by 3 on the following morning, Mugabe was under house arrest and his power stripped away by what must almost be a text book exercise. But it was not democracy and while it was orchestrated by civilian authority in the form of Emmerson Mnangagwa, it was not constitutional or lawful. It was the deliberate use of the very machine that he had created over the past 37 years to keep him in power against democratic forces, led by Tsvangirai, that turned against his and removed him from power.
So where does that leave us, and this is the dilemma we all face in Zimbabwe.
The harsh reality is that the degree to which the Army has control and influence in the State has gone up significantly. This is clearly shown by the selection and appointment of the new Cabinet and of the former Head of the Armed forces as a Vice President and responsible for Defence. It is clear that the new regime in power here is busy cleaning house - but many doors remain closed and protected. The anti-corruption sweep is obviously selective. But let us not sweep aside that fact that Mugabe has gone.
In 1976 when Kissinger effectively ended the reign of Ian Smith over the Rhodesian regime, he knew what he was doing and regretted it as a person, but he knew it was necessary to break his hold on power so that progress could be made to resolve a futile armed conflict.
It is the same now - it is what we do with the new opportunities that the change represents that will determine its ultimate outcome. In 1976 it was eventually 3 years of conflict and then Lancaster House and the British engineered transfer of power to Robert Mugabe, whom they saw as being the only man who could end the war, control all the factions and created a coherent government. They were right and wrong, and the long-term outcome of those decisions is the mess we are now in.
The new team in power are clearly trying to change things for the better. They have no choice as elections loom and must be fought in just 7 months' time. They know that they have a real challenge ahead of them; they are committed to a free and fair election, they know they have not made any friends in what they have done over the past 4 years, and they know that that must, to a very great extent, carry the baggage left over from the Mugabe era.
To do so they simply must deal with corruption, maintain law and order, stop the remnants of the G40 and Joice causing more problems and destabilizing the country. They know they must deal with the cash shortages, the rising prices and shortages. They know they must convince the population that they have changed and its not just the tired old policies of the Mugabe dynasty. They must be able to offer hope and they have to achieve all of this in 7 months.
For all of us we must accept that this agenda is also in our interests - even if we are in the opposition. These are national and not parochial problems that must be tackled if any of us are going to have any sort of future. The MDC and especially Morgan Tsvangirai have brought democracy back to Zimbabwe and restored our rights as a people. But right now, with his illness, other than offering opposition and curbing the excesses of any future government, we are probably stuck with ED and that is our dilemma. We have no choice but to make it work.
Harare 7th January 2017