2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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Lessons from Kenya
I have been watching the events in Kenya very closely and feel that
there
are a lot of lessons to be drawn for us in Zimbabwe. The lessons must
be
preceded by the disclaimer that I know little of Kenya as I have
visited it
only a few times and worked there briefly after 1988 when I was asked
to
advise them on the future of the Kenya Meat Commission.
But even to me as an outsider, the recent elections seem to have been
seriously rigged in favor of the incumbent President. I watched with
interest and some considerable hope on Sunday as Odinga built up a
sizable
lead over the incumbent President - leading by 700 000 votes late on
Sunday.
Then the sudden shroud of secrecy over the whole process and the
surprise
announcement that Kibaki had won. I still find the mathematics
difficult to
understand as Odinga's party collected a clear majority of seats in
Parliament. How Kibaki intends to govern with Odinga holding a majority
in
the House is a mystery to me!
But even so, the democrats of Africa must regard this as yet another
victory
of the ordinary person. An incumbent President, representing the tribal
group that had controlled power since Independence was challenged and
had to
be beaten off by non-democratic means. It is rough on the democrats in
Kenya
but overall it is good for Africa. Kibaki will not get away with this
attempt to cook the books. I am sad for the consequential violence and
killing, as it will take a long time for these wounds to heal.
But what are the lessons for Zimbabwe? Many will say it is the need for
a
united opposition; some have already done so, but in fact Kenya has a
much
more fragmented ethnic and tribal background to Zimbabwe and no
particular
tribe occupies the dominant position of the Shona people here. In my
view
that is not the lesson. The real lesson is that we must ensure that we
control and record the vote count in the forthcoming election from A to
Z.
Africans are not dumb, they know what to do and who to vote for and in
fact,
in my experience, are often more sophisticated when it comes to
politics
than their Western counterparts. In reality we do not really have to
campaign in the classical sense here in Zimbabwe, not for this
election. as
the issues are so clear. What we have to do is show the people here
what we
will do with their vote and with the subsequent responsibility. That we
are
doing and our policies will shortly be published both in writing and on
the
net.
Much more difficult is how to ensure that all Zimbabweans can vote and
that
when they do, it is properly recorded and then counted and reported. In
the
case of the Kenyan elections it seems as if the State permitted a free
and
fair election and campaign, (something we are yet to achieve in
Zimbabwe)
but when the final count was taking place and it became clear that
Kibaki
would lose the election, the State stepped in and the vote was stolen
from
the people. A great shame as a normal democratic transfer of power
would
have been first prize.
Mugabe has gone off for his annual leave in the Far East and left
behind the
chaos and confusion wrought by his policies. The Z$200 000 note that
was
withdrawn from circulation is back, the queues are even longer and the
stores just as empty. We have not been able to find maize meal, the
basic
staple food here, for a month. It is also short in Harare and other
towns.
As for prices! Even I am shocked by the way they are escalating - a
150 ml
tub of Yoghurt is Z$1 250 000!
Just before the Christmas break we met the IMF team that was visiting
Harare
for a routine visit. They told us that they could see no end to the
inflationary spiral in which we are at present. There is no bottom to
this
current crisis, they said. While I was dismayed to hear such judgments
from
an experienced international team of specialists, I was much more
encouraged
by their view that what we proposed made sense and would stop inflation
in
six months. I was also encouraged by their view that if the politics
was
right, we could 'deal' with the huge overhang of debt that this
regime is
going to hand over to us when we beat them in the next election.
In South Africa Jacob Zuma was finally elected leader of the ANC and it
seems that this event was very much over the dead body of the incumbent
President. It has profound implications for South Africa and Zimbabwe.
Zuma
will strengthen the pro change sentiments in the ANC on the Zimbabwe
issue
and we should see movement very shortly in respect to our demand -
given to
President Mbeki the Saturday before Polokwane, that the whole agreement
reached in negotiations in 2007 with Zanu PF be implemented before any
election takes place here. South Africa and indeed the whole of the
SADC,
have little choice in this matter and I am expecting the problems
remaining
to be dealt with shortly.
That of course will do nothing to help us get a handle on our economic
crisis. Inflation is now certainly at 50 000 percent or more and still
accelerating. Shortages are as bad as ever and the State shows no signs
of
even understanding what they are doing or coming to grips with reality.
How
we survived 2007 is a mystery, but we did. Now we have to survive 2008
up to
the elections and then deal with the situation that will be presented
to us
by that event. That is not going to be easy or quick and we will have
to dig
deep.
But I am quite sure that we are going to see the 2007 agreements with
Zanu
PF implemented and that we are going to have another election -
perhaps the
most important in our history. In that election I am sure that we will
win
and that this time there will be a transfer of power to a new
government. It
's a question of time and resources. The regime and South Africa will
both
want the election as soon as possible, probably on schedule in March.
However, the agreements as signed will not allow that if they are to
apply
and it may be necessary to revert to some of the proposals made during
the
talks but rejected by the other participants so as to enable an early
election. For us in the MDC that would be just fine - then to control
the
vote!
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 2nd January 2008
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