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Ambushed
Yesterday the Mugabe regime extended its total disregard for the SADC
process and unilaterally announced that the elections would be held on
the
29th March (I had expected the 28th March) and that nomination day
would be
the 8th February. The nomination day is the day to watch as it was
selected
very carefully by the regime and is a cunning part of the overall
strategy
they worked out 10 months ago.
What Zanu PF did when confronted in March 2007, with the demand by
South
Africa that they hold the elections on schedule in March 2008 and that
they
hold them under 'free and fair' conditions, they convened the
'Joint
Operations Command' and evolved a plan which they have been
implementing
since then. Like all their plans it had one central objective - how
to hold
onto power at all costs.
First they resolved to smash the organizational structures of the MDC,
then
they agreed to go along with the demands of Mbeki and the SADC but in
the
conviction that they could manipulate this process and avoid
dismantling the
system they had built up over the past decade which has enabled them to
determine, in advance, whatever result they thought they needed from
the
election itself. Then finally, they agreed to take measures to reduce
the
urban vote and bring the urban population to heel in the same way that
they
had built up control systems in the rural areas.
In retrospect you can now see clearly how these three basic strategies
have
been played out. Three days after the JOC meeting in Harare, the
leadership
of the MDC was beaten and brutalized in Highfield at a prayer meeting.
Many
were hospitalized and two activists were shot and killed by the police.
Morgan Tsvangirai was beaten unconscious and partially lost the ability
to
speak for a while. Since then thousands of MDC activists have been
beaten
and driven out of the country. The MDC structures in many parts of the
country have been wiped out. The Party Headquarters has been smashed
twice
with the loss of all records and millions of dollars of damage.
The Regime has co-operated with South African mediators in the SADC
process
but has dragged its feet and delayed agreement until the very last
moment,
only to then turn around and say (disingenuously) that there was
'insufficient time' to implement the agreement so the planned
elections
would go ahead under present conditions. When pressed to implement the
agreements reached in 8 months of discussions that were meant to have
taken
three, Mugabe finally simply told Mbeki to get lost and that Zanu PF
would
not implement the deal beyond the modest reforms already agreed and
implemented.
Just to drive home that message Mugabe has in the past week simply
brushed
aside the reforms already agreed, passed through Parliament and signed
into
law. POSA has been used to stop normal political activity, the
Independent
Electoral Commission is operating as if it was business as usual and
military and security officers are being used to manage the electoral
system
in total violation of the new Electoral Act. Reforms in the
registration of
voters and the voter's roll are just being ignored. Now, they
announce a
nomination date that makes it almost impossible for the opposition to
get
its candidates registered for the poll.
At the same time as this was going on, they launched the campaign to
destroy
what was left of the independent business sector using as a pretext
price
controls and 'indigenisation', a euphemism for extending Zanu
control to all
sectors of the economy. In a ruthless campaign that resembles the farm
invasions that followed the Zanu PF defeat in the February 2000
referendum,
the State has arrested 40 000 businessmen, crippled the retail and
wholesale
sector of the economy and announced the virtual nationalization of all
major
industrial and mining companies. In 10 months at least another million
refugees have fled to South Africa and other countries. Only the most
determined and innovative have survived.
Now the MDC faces the most crucial decision in its short life - do we
run in
the election and what can be done about this total violation of the
SADC
process?
I do not know what we will eventually do but I have confidence in our
leadership, which has never let us down in making such decisions in the
past. Right now I am sure, that like me last night, they are not doing
much
sleeping. We have been ambushed, well and truly by the Zanu PF and
their
security cohorts and it does not help that the South African leadership
is
in the same boat.
I am being bombarded by e-mails saying that we should boycott the
elections.
They say that if we run we give credence to the Mugabe regime and the
pretext that they are democrats. Its not quite as simple as that and
that
might, in fact be one of the goals of the Regime in this exercise. The
tragedy is that the South Africans have not been willing, when it
matters
most, to use their very considerable power to secure compliance from
Zanu
PF. But we have no choice but to live with that reality.
Why run when the odds are so stacked against us? In my view the
arguments
are very powerful. In the first instance we have to ask what is the
alternative - violence and more killing? Zanu PF would love that and
use the
violence to justify a clamp down that most African leaders would
endorse.
The possibility of change will recede and it could be years before we
are
again offered such an opportunity. We might even then be forced to
retreat
into violence and many of us would not accept that as a means of
change.
We are not alone on this pitch - there are at least 5 other political
parties and although they are tiny and carry no threat to the regime,
they
might be allowed to take a few seats and would give credence to the
Zanu PF
regime that would follow. Most Zanu candidates would run unopposed and
this
would give them an easy and defensible ride back into power. Again
change
recedes and Zimbabwe becomes just another failed African State relying
on
donor aid to feed an entrapped and impoverished population that does
not
have the energy to oppose the regime.
Then we must not forget a lesson we learned from the war - ambushes
are a
great strategy if your opponent does not know what lies in store for
him. If
you can discover your enemy's strategy and location and timing for an
ambush, you can turn the tables on him and the result can be very
satisfying. It is just possible that we could do that.
We need to get that nomination date changed - put back to where it
should be
in March, then we need to combine forces and put up single candidates
in all
electoral districts and most important, we need to control the final
stage
of the ambush - the election itself. We must use the instruments we
have to
ensure the poll is watched, recorded and reported on from every polling
station - without exception. I do not think we really need to worry
about
what people will do with their ballots - they will vote
overwhelmingly for
change, there is no alternative. What we have to stop is the false
balloting
and the manipulation of the count.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 26th January 2008
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