2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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Truth and Fiction
Just what happened this past week? If you read the media (always
dangerous)
you get reports that say diametrically opposite things - a 'Deal'
is done
says the Gazette, the 'Talks a Failure' says the Independent and
other South
African papers. As for the local State controlled press - well that
is just
a sick joke. You are as likely to get the truth out of them as you are
from
a used car salesman.
But for all of that we have to try and sort out what really went on
from all
the nonsense being written and spoken. What we do know is the
following: the
South African mediators met with the negotiating teams this past
weekend, a
set of options were put before these decision makers, the MDC team
accepted
two of the three options with slight variations whilst the Zanu PF team
was
unable to come to any conclusion in the absence of Mr. Mugabe who was
on
holiday in the Far East.
Mr. Mugabe was visiting Hong Kong, Thailand and Singapore with his
entourage
and chief shopping aide, Grace Mugabe. We know that Mr. Mugabe was sent
for,
dropped everything and hurriedly returned to Harare to take charge.
After a
couple of days of consultations President Mbeki arrived with his team
and
went straight into discussions with the Zanu PF leadership. After
several
hours of discussion Mr. Mbeki saw the MDC leadership and then returned
to
the discussions with the Zanu PF team before leaving the country to
return
home.
The only public part of this process was a brief meeting with the media
where the South African President said that the talks were continuing
and
that progress had been made. Neither the MDC nor Zanu PF made any
public
statement and the MDC leadership left the country for South Africa the
following day.
The rest of us were just left in the dark with no clear statement on
what
had transpired.
I slept on the issue and decided to come down on the side of the view
that
despite all the leaks - a deal was done. There is simply no way that
the
President of South Africa, who has so much at stake in the process and
for
whom, for the first time in 7 years, has all his ducks in a row on this
issue, would allow the talks to collapse and flounder. The question is
therefore what sort of deal?
The rest of this note is conjecture - so you can take it or leave it,
as it
may not be accurate. My own view has been for some time that we are
stuck
with a March election. My guess is that nomination day is the 7th of
March
with the elections taking place 21 days later on the 28th of March. The
elections will be in one day and some 2000 seats are up for election.
Urban
voters in the main centers may have 5 ballots to complete, in the other
areas, 4 ballots. At issue is nothing more or less than the future of
Zimbabwe as a State.
The devil always lies with the detail. I would agree with a senior
diplomat
who said to me some weeks ago 'there is no chance of holding a free
and fair
election in Zimbabwe today, however we will watch the process carefully
and
if the outcome is one that we feel represents the views of the
majority, we
will accept it and move on from there'. A sort of resigned acceptance
that
SA has not achieved enough in the mediated talks but we have no choice
but
to work with the outcome.
Frankly I think the same thing applies to the MDC - we have little
choice
but to work with the gains made in nearly 8 months of tortuous and
painstaking negotiations with a group, who from the very beginning were
in
no way sincere or committed to genuine change in the way our elections
are
run.
Change there has been - not enough to ensure a free and fair
election, but
is it enough to allow a free expression of the will of the people? Can
we
prevent the sort of fraud that has characterised the elections in
Zimbabwe
for many years and in Kenya just recently? Most would say no, but in my
view
the changes negotiated and now being implemented must not be
discounted.
They are significant in many ways.
The questions that remain are many - can we persuade eligible
Zimbabweans
voters to come out on the 28th and vote? Can we then protect their
voice and
make sure it is reported accurately and without manipulation to the
national
tally and then finally, will our society and administration accept the
outcome? Those are big questions that only time will answer.
But for me I have always viewed this process as a struggle. It will
remain a
struggle right through to the end. My main fear in the past 18 months
has
been that we would not have an election. That the regime would simply
back
into its shell and with the support of the armed forces and corrupt
business
interests, administer the country via a military/Zanu Junta.
Effectively a
coup in all but name. That has not happened and one of the main reasons
has
been the continued belief that Zanu PF has done enough to win the
election.
The other factor is simply pride. Mr. Mugabe wants to defeat Morgan
Tsvangirai in a straight electoral battle - make no mistake this is
the
modern equivalent of a 16th Century Jousting competition. He wants to
hold
an election that meets the minimum conditions that he can get away with
and
then manage his own semi dignified exit from the stage before things
get
completely out of hand.
Just look at the constraints on Morgan in this contest - he has been
beaten
physically, denied funding for normal political activity, restricted in
all
forms of normal political activity, the bookies are all Zanu PF lackeys
and
the crowd in the stadium is loaded with Zanu PF supporters. Traditional
leaders who have been intimidated and bribed control the field,
Morgan's
horse is denied food and water and his equipment is tampered with.
No wonder Mr. Mugabe is confident! But remember, this is still a
contest to
be won and lost. At least we are going to get our chance on the field.
It is
a risk, but one worth taking if this is all we have got. So my view is
that
we are in for an election and it is up to every one of us to get off
our
butts and make sure that this time, the real result is captured and
reported. We sure can live with the result; I am not sure Zanu PF can.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 19th January 2008
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