2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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8 Days to GO!
What a roller coaster ride the past three months have been. Just look
back
for a bit - three months ago we were still struggling with the SADC
process,
hopeful that Mbeki and the SADC leadership would force Mugabe to play
ball
and allow a free and fair vote. Then came the blunt refusal by Mugabe
to go
along with the reforms negotiated over 9 months between Zanu PF and the
MDC.
Then the desperate attempts to get the opposition to unite - fresh
negotiations, a deal is struck and then rejected by the political
structures
(not the top leadership) of the MDC and we were faced with an election
in
six weeks, no money, a divided opposition and widespread disbelief in
the
electoral process - why vote, was the most frequently asked question.
Then came the Makoni bombshell. I was about to go onto a radio talk
show in
South Africa when friends called me to say Makoni was holding a press
conference in Harare and was coming in as a new Presidential candidate.
I
knew that was a most significant development and I broke the news on SA
radio and said that in my view this event would shake up the whole
establishment here and might change the outlook for the elections.
It did both; it was the first senior defection from Zanu PF in recent
years.
The Makoni decision was followed by a number of others as rumors of his
support base in Zanu PF spread. But you can never predict what will
happen
in a situation like this because the law of unintended consequences
always
follows through. What we did not expect to happen was the impact it
made on
the outlook of the general population towards the election. Skeptism
was
immediately transformed into expectation.
People began to register to vote again, interest in the political
process
stepped up and the national debate grew to a crescendo. Whatever the
truth,
people thought that with Zanu PF divided and the armed forces clearly
in two
minds, that Mugabe would not be able to rig this election the way he
had in
2002 and 2005. Money began to flow into the political process; people
got
off the shelf and threw themselves into the fray. MDC was able to field
nearly 2000 candidates and demonstrated a degree of preparedness that
took
all by surprise.
A short campaign has ensued. MDC rallies and meeting across the whole
country have attracted large audiences - record attendance in many
cases
when compared to the past 8 years of almost continuous political
activity.
But more than that - people suddenly gained the confidence to flaunt
their
party regalia and demonstrate their support.
For Makoni et al the situation peaked about two weeks ago and their
support
as reflected in the polls being conducted among the voting populations
shows
that their support is now waning - at the last count Makoni had 8 per
cent
of the national vote with 27 per cent saying that would not disclose
who
they would vote for and 17 per cent saying they would not vote. Morgan
Tsvangirai is now well in the lead in the polls with Makoni still
trailing
Mugabe. How anyone who is not nuts can still support Mugabe is a
mystery to
me!
So here we are - 8 days to go and what can we expect? Pretty much
everything
and everybody is behaving according to our expectations. The SADC
observer
mission is here led by Angola where democratic elections are still a
distant
dream. They have already stated that the conditions are free and fair!
What
a hoot! I am looking forward to all the other 'democratic' States
arriving -
China, Libya among them. Morgan said that the observer missions were a
waste
of time and money; Zimbabweans are on their own.
Still no international press here, still no programming on State
controlled
media, still full-page ads from Zanu PF in every daily newspaper. But
Zanu
PF has not held one meeting in Bulawayo and the Presidential rally has
been
cancelled. Just to show them what might happen if they did come to
Bulawayo,
a local Party hack sponsored a football match with a substantial prize
plus
free beer and was rewarded by the crowd roaring their approval when a
MDC T
shirt walked into the Stadium and sat near the dignitaries. Then at the
end
of the match the crowd sang rude songs about Zanu PF and the actual
sponsors
of the event. Great to see people not afraid any more.
I sense a real shift in the Police - perhaps its because I have had
more to
do with them this time - normally the closest I get to a Policeman is
a
confrontation at a rally or march. This past week we had the CIO arrest
three volunteers putting up posters - they took them into custody,
cuffed
them around and forced them to eat a poster. The Police officer to whom
we
complained phoned the CIO and said that if the MDC people were nor
released
immediately he would charge them with assault - he then instructed
the
victims to go to a doctor and get a medical report and lay charges
against
the CIO. That has not happened before - I do not know who was more
shocked,
the CIO operatives or us!
I am exhausted and wonder how Morgan is coping - he is in the rural
areas
most days, speaking and traveling continuously. The pressure is
enormous.
Sunday he speaks at a Star rally in the Zimbabwe grounds where Simba
launched his campaign three weeks ago before a small (3000) crowd. I am
going up for that and expect to see a massive crowd if the recent weeks
have
been anything to go by.
We should all now prepare for the election itself. We intend to declare
the
result from our own field reports and I am sure we will be the first to
say
what has happened - so watch your news on Sunday morning. We have had
threats from the military and a clear statement from South Africa that
they
would not tolerate any military intervention, but anything is possible.
Lets
just pray for a landslide that no one can argue with. Then comes the
hard
part - coping with the complete mess Zanu PF leaves as its legacy of
28
years of failed and corrupt government.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 21st March 2008
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