2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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The Current Situation
So much going on it's difficult to keep track.
On the economic front things go from bad to worse. Inflation continues
to
escalate and now stands at something over 400 000 percent. Prices are
changing daily, even by the hour. Quotations are valid for a few hours,
you
pay when you take delivery. I heard of someone who was at lunch and
while
they were eating, the price went up!
Mugabe has continued to breathe fire and brimstone against the private
sector. After signing the Indigenisation Bill into law, he went on to
threaten all remaining British companies with expropriation of their
assets
and to force all companies to freeze their prices at some arbitrary
date in
February. The Indigenisation Act provides for all foreign owned
companies to
sell 51 per cent of their equity to indigenous businesspersons, 25 per
cent
to the State for no cost and 26 per cent to be paid from future
dividends.
51 percent means the loss of control over the appointment of management
and
the determination of policy. For every dollar invested, investors get
49
cents of value and no control. No company, local or foreign owned, will
accept such a draconian measure. Most firms would rather just windup
and
close down.
These statements and measures have simply frozen private sector
activity in
its tracks. No investment is taking place nor any maintenance and
development. The entire business community is now simply waiting for
the
outcome of the election. Even the many companies owned by previous
supporters of Zanu PF are now sitting back and watching events. They
know
the present situation is so dire that change is inevitable.
On the food front the regime had placed huge orders with Malawi and
Zambia -
Malawi actually offered to sell us maize on credit, Zambia also offered
terms. Now Malawi, after delivering part of the order, has discovered
that
they overestimated their crop and has hurriedly shut down the
operation. I
hope they have been paid. I suspect that Zambia is in the same position
and
is also now 'going slow' on deliveries.
This coupled to the global tight market for basic foods, wheat, maize
and
soybeans means much higher prices and longer supply positions. We have
run
out of food. Beef is Z$100 million per kilo; milk is Z$40 million plus
per
litre. If you can find it, maize meal is costing Z$80 to Z$120 million
dollars for 10 kilos. On top of this there is a real physical shortage
of
basic foods of all kinds. Fresh vegetables are scarce and expensive.
One interesting aspect of this food situation is that what Zanu PF had
counted on, as being an electoral asset - the ability to control and
direct
basic food supplies on a patronage or political affinity basis, has in
fact
become a liability. Hungry people, who cannot find food for their
families
or simply cannot afford the very high prices, are angry people.
Signs of accelerated decay are all around us - schools closed early
and will
be closed for 6 weeks, many have less than half their establishment of
teachers and of those, half or more are just out of school themselves
and
are untrained. The roads are in dire straights and grass verges have
not
been cut for months, small trees are growing on the verges in many
areas.
Sewerage systems are not being maintained and water quality and
availability
to all urban areas has declined, despite full dams and reservoirs.
Health
services are incapable of dealing with even routine needs.
The flood of refugees continues to pour out of Zimbabwe into
neighboring
States - mainly South Africa. There, Xenophobia and economic tensions
between migrants and local populations are giving rise to violence and
retribution.
On the electoral front Mugabe is in a state of panic. What is all this
'red
card' business he plaintively asked, at a rally on Sunday in Bulawayo
attended by a small crowd dominated by school kids. He is looking his
age
and has to be assisted to walk and climb stairs. An increasingly
defiant
population is ignoring his demands and threats.
The authorities continue to do what they can to intimidate activists
- they
are arrested and beaten for putting up posters, doing door-to-door
campaigns. Meetings are routinely banned or the organizers arrested for
holding an 'illegal gathering'. I ran over the time limit for one
of my
meetings and in the morning I got a phone call to say - do not do it
again!
On Friday we brought in a helicopter to help Morgan carry out the
remaining
flurry of rallies - 15 rallies were planned for three days - the
aircraft
moving a small group quickly from one rural venue to another. We
cleared his
first day's programme in Harare but Bulawayo refused to accept that
and the
aircraft stayed on the ground - 4 rallies were missed, including a
large
gathering at Victoria Falls. We then cleared a flight plan for 10
rallies in
Manicaland and the Mashonaland East.
The aircraft flew to Harare; a small group who were helping with the
operation - planning the refueling stops and so on, met the pilot on
the
ground. The pilot asked me 'just keep me out of jail'. I joked with
him that
he should not worry - we (MDC) fed prisoners quite well and he would
get
legal help and then free medical assistance if he was beaten!
At six on the first morning of the new programme he was arrested
together
with the volunteer group and is still in custody as I write! The second
round has had to be aborted unless Morgan can try and do some of the
meetings by road. 15 rallies, probably 70 000 people, denied the chance
to
see and hear their next President. Hey, welcome to the Democratic
Republic
of Zimbabwe! Police even visited the elderly widow in Bulawayo who had
given
him a bed for two nights yesterday!
So goes the count down - three days to go, 72 hours to freedom!
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 26th March 2008
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