2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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Mugabe's Multiple Mistakes
Many people who observe the Zimbabwe situation fail to recognise that
Mr.
Mugabe has made several serious errors of judgment in the past year -
errors
that, in my view, will cost him the Presidency in 2008. For the purpose
of
this missive I will deal with each of those errors of judgment in
sequence,
rather than consequence.
The first error is an observation rather than a specific event. Had Mr.
Mugabe co-operated with President Mbeki in his various efforts over the
past
7 years to find a solution to the Zimbabwe crisis, we would have been
in a
very different situation today. In all probability we would have seen
Mr.
Mugabe retire some years ago and a 'reformed Zanu PF' regime
ushered in with
a reformist agenda. MDC would have been relegated to the opposition
benches,
international recognition would be creeping back and Zimbabwe would be
slowly recovering.
Instead Mugabe has repelled all attempts to persuade him that his time
is
up, humiliated and subdued the alternative leadership that is available
in
Zanu PF and insisted on remaining in power despite the clear failure of
his
administration in all spheres of government.
It was against this backdrop that his decision to try and defer the
electoral challenge from March 2008 to June 2010 in December 2006 came
as
such a shock to South Africa. He had talked about this for some time,
it was
expected but it was not until he announced this decision at the
December
Zanu PF conference that it actually sank home in South Africa that this
might impact on the World Cup. The South African government is
determined to
hold the World Cup and to make a success of this huge event at all
costs.
Nothing will be allowed to disturb the path to May/June 2010!
Mbeki brought his Zimbabwe team back together and instructed them to
think
about a solution to the Zimbabwe crisis, one that would protect the
World
Cup and get the Zimbabwe situation off South Africa's back. One major
consideration that had changed since 2002/2005 was the rise of Jacob
Zuma
and the understanding that this meant the ANC alliance was no longer
under
threat by the possible withdrawal of Cosatu.
The subsequent foreign policy review led to the meeting in Accra on the
7th
March where President Mbeki met Mr. Mugabe and persuaded him to revert
to
March 2008 for the next elections. He also broached the subject of the
conditions under which those elections might be held.
Mr. Mugabe's third mistake was not to read those signals right and to
under
estimate his opponent in the form of President Mbeki. He assumed
(wrongly as
it turned out) that he could 'deal' with Mbeki in the same way that
he had
dealt with a challenge from Mr. Mandela in the late 90's when the
latter
tried to get him to step down from a senior position in the SADC. He
thought
that he had enough friends and supporters in the SADC region to be able
to
blunt the SA initiative. He was wrong on both counts.
President Mbeki knew his man - he understood very clearly just what
type of
character he was dealing with and prepared his ground very carefully.
SADC
was fully briefed and he also drew in the international community to be
sure
that they would support the new initiative. So when Mbeki called the
March
29th emergency SADC summit - it had been carefully set up and
prepared and
Mr. Mugabe faced a united group of 10 SADC Presidents and 3 Foreign
Ministers when he walked into the hall in Dar es Salaam.
Even then, having learned of the consensual nature of the decisions he
was
faced with in SADC, Mr. Mugabe believed that he could manipulate SADC
and
avoid the full implications of the SADC decisions on the March 2008
elections. Because he was so confident he made his fourth mistake. When
the
two negotiating teams were scheduled to start work in May and June,
Mugabe
simply ignored the meetings and instructed his Ministers to go about
their
ordinary work. The timing of the second snub could not have been worse.
The
Presidents of 5 African countries were scheduled to meet with the G8
leadership in Germany and had thought that they had done enough to
ensure
that the Zimbabwe crisis would not ambush the G8 summit again. Instead
of
being able to say that the Zimbabwe crisis was being dealt with -
they had a
letter from Mr. Mugabe listing all the reasons why Zanu PF would not
talk to
the MDC. Mbeki was furious.
The unthinkable then happened - the talks began with no fanfare and
for the
next 6 months Zanu PF arrived on time and on schedule for all arranged
meetings and eventually a complete package of reforms were agreed and
signed. Then Mr. Mugabe made mistake number five. He tried to avoid
implementing the deal just completed. MDC responded with outrage -
what had
the past six months of painful negotiation been for? The proposed delay
in
the whole reform process was rejected and the facilitators were
confronted
with a complete impasse.
President Mbeki had his own problems to deal with and said to the MDC
that
he would deal with the situation as soon as he had completed the ANC
Congress in Polokwane. When he finally got back to the Zimbabwe
situation he
did the necessary preparatory work to ensure he did not fire any damp
squibs
and then called a meeting of the negotiating teams for this past week.
Mugabe then made his sixth mistake - he instructed his people not to
attend.
President Mbeki was informed that 'we have an election to contest, we
do not
have the time for these futile meetings!'
Needless to say, the cattle prod came out of its box and was used and I
understand the negotiating teams are in South Africa today for what is
expected to be final talks about the whole process. President Mbeki and
his
SADC colleagues have too much at stake to allow Zanu PF to prevaricate,
this
time a deal will be done and it will be implemented. Kenya has driven
that
lesson home to regional leaders, there is just too much at stake.
I think that because of these key events and mistakes of judgment by
the
Mugabe team, Zimbabwe will get its elections - probably sooner rather
than
later, they will be reasonably free and fair, compromises will be made
and
time alone will give the outcome. They often say about tennis, that you
lose
the game more from your mistakes than for the brilliance of your game.
Mr.
Mugabe must ponder on that truth as he starts the final match of this
contest.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 12th January 2008
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