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Eddie Cross's Website

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Eddie Cross - Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

2008 Articles
25 Dec Kingdom Come
21 Dec Christmas
15 Dec Step Forward
5 Dec Beginning
1 Dec Amendment
30 Nov Facilitation
26 Nov Genocide
24 Nov Running Out
17 Nov Crisis
15 Nov Somalia
12 Nov What Next?
8 Nov Leadership
2 Nov Chipo
1 Nov Rome Burns
29 Oct Failure
25 Oct High Noon
19 Oct Never Easy
10 Oct Abyss
8 Oct Filibustering
4 Oct Chaos in Zim
29 Sept A Mule?
21 Sept On Step
16 Sept The End
12 Sept New Beginning
11 Sept Deal?
6 Sept Consequences
3 Sept Need a Deal
2 Sept Dollar Died
31 Aug Steering
29 Aug Unstuck
23 Aug Betrayed
18 Aug The Devil
13 Aug 13 Aug 08
12 Aug Today
11 Aug Cliffhanger
8 Aug Whats Going On
27 Jul Progress
22 Jul Agree to talk
21 Jul Mbeki kicks
16 Jul Crunch Time
13 Jul Economics
9 Jul Reality Looms
2 Jul Where?
30 Jun Looking Glass
26 Jun Battle
22 Jun What Now?
21 Jun The Commitment
16 Jun Do or Die
13 Jun Morning After
10 Jun Closing Doors
26 May Current Outlook
24 May Fan Club
19 May Tyranny
17 May End Game
15 May Flushing
8 May Violence
6 May Bizarre Process
25 Apr Cornered
20 Apr Electoral Fraud
19 Apr Jesse
17 Apr This Farce
11 Apr The Devil
6 Apr Wounded Buffalo
1 Apr Dying Kick
31 Mar Politcl Tsunami
27 Mar Current Situ.
26 Mar 4 days to go
21 Mar 8 days to go
15 Mar Election Time
27 Feb Games Begin
17 Feb Public Office
11 Feb Choices
4 Feb Decision Time
26 Jan Ambushed
25 Jan The Struggle
20 Jan Truth or Fiction
12 Jan Mugabe Mistake
8 Jan Surprise
2 Jan Kenya Lessons

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Where do we stand now?

The much awaited AU summit has closed, African leaders have spoken and resolved to take up the Zimbabwe crisis in a certain way - but where does that leave the region and Zimbabwe right now?

In summary, the June 27th election has been pretty roundly condemned as not meeting continental standards, not representing the views of the people and not being 'free and fair'. A number of major figures on the continent have spoken out and called for not only withdrawal of recognition for Mugabe as a Head of State but in several cases armed intervention. The leadership of the AU had little choice but to condemn the election and call for dialogue leading to a Government of National Unity.

So far so good - realistically we could not have expected more from the AU working as it does by consensus. But the issue is where does that leave us in Zimbabwe and in the region as a whole?

The first point to note is that after the March and June elections we have an illegitimate government that is not recognised by any major nation - including for the first time China, Russia and South Africa. Recognition by fellow dictators in Africa and elsewhere does not matter. The main issue here is that for any administration in Zimbabwe to get to grips with the economic and humanitarian crisis it must get the support - political and financial, from the donors who have the capacity to provide the required funding. Apart from this - the fact of non-recognition simply makes our position that much more critical and urgent.

The second point is that an urgent humanitarian crisis is developing in Zimbabwe so serious that if it is not addressed in a matter of days or weeks, will make life simply impossible for every Zimbabwean not hooked up to the Zanu PF gravy train. I spoke to the Headmaster of a school today and his salary - paid last week, bought 4 bananas. Inflation at more than 2 million percent is simply wiping out the accumulated capital assets and companies in a matter of weeks. If they do not have access to hard currency, these individuals and companies simply will not survive.

Basis essentials from soap to food staples are simply not available - I passed the largest supermarket in Bulawayo yesterday and it had two cars parked outside. The largest wholesaler in the country is close to closure. People can only withdraw Z$25 billion a day from the banks - not enough for one kilogram of dog food. Cash is in very short supply so that cash rates for foreign exchange are now a third of the business rate. This impacts on millions who rely in remittances at about US$100 million a month from outside Zimbabwe.

Add to this harsh reality and take into account that the State has stopped all food aid for a month now - depriving about half the country of their basic needs and you get the picture. We are in meltdown and the only way out is across the Limpopo to South Africa - or anywhere. A fiend of mine opened his factory on Monday to find that 11 of his staff had left the country for South Africa. This is taking place across the country - what is making this migration different is that many are taking their whole families - they have been terrorized for three months by this regime, their homes burnt, their physical safety threatened and their assets destroyed. They cannot even buy food if the money is available and the new developments in the money market make remittances much less valuable. The only answer is to leave and to take your whole family with you.

If this is not addressed and soon, the consequences will be catastrophic. South Africa is already struggling to cope with millions of economic and political refugees. Squatter camps and high-density townships are packed with people - all living on the margins of society, many by crime. They simply cannot absorb a fresh wave of humanity from beleaguered Zimbabwe but they need to know it is on its way.

The third point to note is that Africa is being judged by its peers in the international community and by the global business community in how it is going to deal with what is a clear violation of all democratic and human rights in Zimbabwe. This is not a problem for the west - no strategic interests are involved, just questions of principle and governance. This is an African problem - and solutions must come from African leadership. If we fail then we must suffer the consequences. We will be judged as not being committed to democracy or universal legal and human rights. We will be judged as not being sound partners for global enterprise and investment.

The most dramatic evidence of such a judgment will be the World Cup in 2010. Very much a symbol of African capacity to host a global event and one that captures the imaginations of millions of African soccer fans, the controlling authority of FIFA on Friday stated that they had a contingency plan to move the World Cup away from Africa if, in their judgment, conditions were not right. It was a signal, not seen by many, but it was a clear indication that African leadership is on notice. Much less public but just as significant are the many decisions being taken behind closed doors in business diverting effort, skills and capital away from the continent.

The AU has tossed the ball straight back into the SADC court, in the SADC the responsibility now rests with regional leadership and South Africa remains a key player as well as the most vulnerable to the regional crisis now being played out. The question is what will they do with the ball? Time is not on their side - the crisis here is escalating rapidly, the options are limited.

Any solution will only fly if it has the support of the MDC and Civil Society here in Zimbabwe as well as the full endorsement of the international community and in particular the donor group on Zimbabwe. The illegitimate and criminal regime headed by Mugabe does not have a great deal to offer such a grouping - they clearly will not voluntarily agree to any solution that meets the criteria laid down by the above three groups. They will have to be brought to the table by force - not military but simply by the combined weight of the SADC region and especially our immediate neighbors.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 2nd July 2008