2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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A Political Tsunami
A few weeks ago I stood in a small house in a local high-density suburb
addressing a meeting of about 150 people crammed into every corner. I
said
to them that what we needed to end the crisis in Zimbabwe was a
political
Tsunami. I said a Tsunami could not be detected on the open sea (during
the
campaign) and when it reached the shore and rose up like a mountain of
water, those on the beach got little or no warning. It was silent and
totally destructive, sweeping away everything in its path.
Right now (17.00 hrs on Sunday the 30th) the semi official tally is 103
seats to MDC and 5 to Zanu PF. The outcome of the election has been a
stunning victory for the MDC and Morgan Tsvangirai. Many of the strong
holds
of Zanu PF have fallen to overwhelming MDC majorities. Makoni has
performed
more or less to expectations - in fact did better than we anticipated
-
especially in Matabeleland where he seems to have garnered about 30 per
cent
of the vote. Nationally it looks like about 10 per cent.
It also looks like a first round victory for Morgan with over 50 per
cent of
the national tally. Even here in Matabeleland where Makoni took votes
away
from him, his margin was 2 to 1 against Makoni and 10 to 1 against
Mugabe.
The Police have said to us in the MDC - you may not celebrate until
the
official results are known. In one of my polling stations when the
returning
officer announced 452 votes for Morgan Tsvangirai and 14 votes for
Robert
Mugabe, one of the policemen in the Station made a sort of gurgling
sound
and collapsed!
Yesterday was extraordinary - as I have said before, no more than 2,8
million voters were active in Zimbabwe and I think we will see when the
final tally comes out that a very high turnout was achieved. We knew
from
our own research that a high turn out would favor the opposition.
Observers
are saying that the turn out was low - but that is because they are
looking
at the voters roll against the turnout. In the rural areas the numbers
were
small - but still gave MDC a clear majority.
The Mutambara group fared poorly - at this stage I know of only a few
candidates who won their seats - David Coltart in the Khumalo
senatorial
seat. He will be insufferable - but it is good that we are not losing
his
talents and experience. Otherwise it looks as if the ratio of votes
Mutambara group to Tsvangirai was at least 2 to 1 in Matabeleland and
they
got nowhere in the rest of the country. Both Welshman Ncube and Gibson
Sibanda lost their seats. I am sure Mutambara will have been
annihilated in
Harare.
In my long career in opposition politics - first in the Smith era and
then
later in the last 20 years of the Mugabe era, I have never voted for a
winner before! Quite an experience for me therefore to vote for 4
candidates
and have them all romp home. But I am the first to acknowledge that the
circumstances were exceptional. This was, as Morgan stated, a
referendum on
the leadership of Mugabe.
What turned this election from a silent surge of feeling in mid ocean,
into
a tsunami? For a start it was the Mbeki factor. Right from the start of
2007, Mr. Mbeki played a crucial role in persuading his SADC colleagues
to
recognise the MDC and to back reform of the electoral process. They
forced
Zanu PF to come to the negotiating table and in 9 months of
negotiations,
got a number of concessions agreed and implemented. Frustrated at the
very
end of the process, Mbeki then turned to Makoni and sent him in to
joust
with Mugabe. It was a clever and fatal move and sunk the Mugabe ship in
mid
ocean. But even Mbeki could not have anticipated the size of the
subsequent
MDC victory.
Meanwhile the effects of the reforms agreed and implemented in Zimbabwe
-
even though they were limited, had started to work through the system.
Here
the law of unintended consequences came into play. The shift of
electoral
power from the Registrar Generals Office to the Zimbabwe Electoral
Commission seemed to Zanu PF to be a move that was without risk. After
all,
had they not appointed the Commission themselves and was not George
Chiweshe, the chairman, a loyalist? In fact they completely
underestimated
the dynamics of the shift from Civil Service control under Mudede to
the ZEC
under a civilian Commission.
The Commission has played a crucial role - sticking to its mandate to
administer the election within the guidelines of the Electoral Act.
They
actually frustrated several attempts by Mugabe to implement last minute
changes to the electoral system and insisted on the counting at the
polling
stations - this opened the door to the MDC vote count and reporting
system
and prevented many of the rigging efforts that had enabled Zanu PF to
dictate the outcome of previous elections.
Then came the MDC state of preparedness - the consensus of the media
and
many other commentators was that the MDC was a spent force. Divided and
confused, weakened by a year of relentless onslaught by the authorities
and
the departure of thousands of their key activists to South Africa and
elsewhere. In fact, it stunned Zanu when the MDC was able to field 2000
candidates at short notice and then come out fighting with a well
prepared
and financed campaign. The key to that was the support network built up
over
several years in the region and these hidden hero's are very much
responsible for the activity everyone has seen in the past few weeks
- the
adverts, the flyers, the poster war and the funding for our candidates.
Finally the anti rigging operation. We knew how they had rigged
previous
elections and we set out to try and stop a recurrence. The whistle
blower
campaign was a key part of that and we have had hundreds of calls from
all
quarters and several key 'hits'. The many people who climbed in and
said
'one more time' and spent days in the bush helping with the count
and the
reporting system are unsung heroes.
Then the people - they had just had enough, had enough of arrogance
and
being taken for granted, enough of the suffering and destruction of the
economy. Their steadfast faith in the electoral process and their
refusal to
take to violence. They chose to suffer in silence and then go out and
vote.
For me they are the real champions and I hope they will never again be
taken
for granted. I also hope they will hold their new leadership
accountable for
the trust they have given us.
Eddie Cross
30th March 2008
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