2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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What next?
As you all know the SADC summit took place on Sunday, 5 heads of State
attended with officials and Ministers representing those that could not
attend. They deliberated for 12 hours and then issued a communique that
basically endorsed the position adopted by Mr. Mbeki and then the SADC
Troika. The most significant part of the whole exercise was that all 14
States supported the decisions reached, there were no disputing views.
It was a minor political victory for Mr. Mugabe, Mr. Mbeki and the Troika.
It was a major failure of leadership.
The final decision that the two main parties should share control of the
Ministry of Home Affairs and that the rest of the power sharing deal should
stand as agreed by Mr. Mbeki, is neither rational nor workable. It ignores
the political realities in Zimbabwe, reduces the chance of success for the
new Government and could lead to the total collapse of the deal if the MDC
decides to reject the package.
In a rerun of the Kenyan situation where regional leaders striving for
compromise, imposed a solution on Kenya that is a hydra headed monster,
barely capable of walking let alone running the country, the SADC States
have taken the easy route out and in doing so have run the risk of creating
a failed State in Zimbabwe and unleashing uncontrollable violence and
destruction.
But take it or leave it, it's a done deal and an appeal to the AU or the
UN - both themselves dysfunctional institutions, will change little. This is
the end of the road for negotiations.
At this stage the future of Zimbabwe is totally in the hands of the MDC and
Morgan Tsvangirai. If we accept what has been decided and go into the new
government on this basis, we will be committing ourselves to a near
impossible task. It will be up to us to turn the economy around, establish
conditions for free and fair elections in two years time and to try and heal
the country, now more deeply divided than ever.
In this exercise neither Zanu PF nor the Mutambara group have anything to
offer, except to try and not be spoilers. They bring nothing to the table
except failure and corruption and unrepresentative participation in the
institutions of the State. Not one of the Mutambara representatives in the
new government will be elected while the great majority of the Zanu
representatives hold their seats through intimidation and rigging.
The problems facing any new government are staggering - GDP has collapsed to
less than half of what it was 10 years ago, the local currency is worthless
and cannot be used for ordinary transactions any more, thousands are dying
weekly from starvation, malnutrition and disease. 95% of all teachers in the
public sector are not working, 3 million children are out of school and
hospitals and clinics are either closed or non-functional. Food supplies
have run out and everywhere people are desperately looking for whatever food
is available.
The news today that the aid agencies feeding the majority of the people will
run out of food in January and are cutting allocations by half in December
to try and reach 4 million of the most affected people. The dilemma of the
MDC is that if they walk away from the SADC deal they will leave ordinary
Zimbabweans naked in a blizzard that will offer only death or flight.
The tragedy of this situation is that Mr Mugabe and Zanu PF do not give a
damn - they want the deal to fail and think that they can in fact do 'very
well' on what is left of the Zimbabwe economy. They do not worry in any
sense about the impact of the final collapse of Zimbabwe on our neighbours.
They are only concerned about one thing - how to hold onto their total
control of the State and thereby protect their standard of living and
personal security.
The tragedy of the SADC summit is that it is clear that after all these
years and numerous declarations of commitment to democratic principles and
to all the recognised human and political rights, when it comes to applying
those lofty principles to a real time political crisis in their midst, they
mean nothing.
But that is the reality of African politics at this stage in our history.
Not pretty or easy, but the stark reality.
So what do we do? Our National Council will meet this week and receive a
report from the leadership together with recommendations on the way forward.
It will be the most difficult decision for the MDC since we were formed in
1999. Unlike our compatriots, we care, we care deeply for the plight of
Zimbabweans - all of them affected by the collapse and crisis created by
failed leadership, greed and corruption.
This time the consequences of rejection of a flawed deal for our people will
be immediate and terrible. Morgan stated in Johannesburg that a million
people face death from starvation if the SADC brokered deal collapses. He
was not exaggerating.
Eddie Cross
12th November 2008
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