2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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A Wounded Buffalo
Zanu PF is behaving just like a wounded buffalo. The African buffalo is
one
of the most dangerous adversaries in the world of wildlife. It has an
enormous capacity to take punishment, is extremely difficult to kill
outright and when wounded - even fatally, it has the ability to do
great
damage. It is also a highly intelligent adversary.
I have never hunted buffalo but have friends who have and had a senior
in my
department when I was a young man actually ambushed by a wounded
buffalo in
the Zambezi Valley. He was very lucky to survive and was never quite
the
same again. A frequent target of the trophy hunter are the lone bulls
who
move about in small groups or on their own and have a magnificent set
of
horns with that huge mass of bone across the head.
If the hunter gets a clean heart shot, the buffalo has the capacity to
run
for some considerable distance before collapsing. If the shot is not
clean,
then the buffalo is known to run and then circle back and lie in ambush
for
his hunter. That is what happened to my senior in the valley. Although
a
large animal, the buffalo knows exactly how to stand in the shade and
to
blend in with his background. Often the only thing that might alert you
to
his presence is a flick of the ears or a tail. Fail to spot him and
you
could be on the receiving end of a short and furious rush and fall
victim to
the horns or just his mass.
Zanu PF lost this election massively - if you take the combined vote
of
Makoni and Tsvangirai, 73 per cent of the people who voted (2,4
million)
voted against him - he only got 27 per cent of the vote. The poll was
41 per
cent if you use the voter's roll but by my calculation (2,8 to 3
million
actual voters) it was nearer 80 per cent. Even when the National
Command
Centre had spent a day massaging the results they only got them down to
50
per cent for Tsvangirai and nearly 10 per cent for Makoni - still a
huge
defeat for a sitting President.
In addition they have lost control, even with the rigging, of the House
of
Assembly. In the Senate it looks as if we will have a stand off - but
this
does not make that much of a difference. But any measure, Zanu PF has
taken
a shot that has fatally wounded the old bull. However, like the buffalo
I
described above, he is still dangerous.
As things stand right now, the Zanu PF Politburo has decided that a
full
audit of the Presidential results can go ahead. We demanded this when
we saw
the results for Mashonaland Central four days ago. When this is
completed
(perhaps today) then we will hear if the final tally gives Morgan 49 or
50
per cent of the final count. If its 49, they want a rerun, if he gets
50 per
cent plus one vote, he will be sworn in as President and we will get a
new
government.
I will not bore you with all the gory details of what has gone on this
week,
but just to say that Zanu PF and Robert Gabriel Mugabe have had a tough
time
accepting the reality of the loss of power and privilege. I understand
that
Grace Mugabe has left the country and has taken a very considerable sum
of
money (real money) with her. There is also a strong rumor that the man
who
led 5th Brigade during the genocide in the 80's has committed
suicide. But
that may or may not be true. Nevertheless it shows how much of a total
shock
this has been for the Zanu machine.
If there is a run off, I can only anticipate an electoral massacre. Ex
President Mugabe will not even get the numbers he currently has in the
poll.
It will be, in effect, a coup de grace.
So we are thinking through what a re-run might mean for us - how we
might
handle it. It is already clear that despite the fact that so far the
people
have committed no acts of violence in any way, that Zanu PF is going to
use
violence to try and get its way in the re-run. Already yesterday we
have
seen new violence in several areas, Masvingo especially. Morgan
Tsvangirai
said in his press conference yesterday that Mugabe is preparing to go
to war
against the people. It will not help him.
I just pray that there will not be a re-run. The country simply cannot
take
any more of this. Work is impossible - our factories are shut down as
the
staff cannot work, suppliers cannot fix prices and buyers are frozen in
their tracks. The economy is virtually at a stand still and inflation
is
racing ahead. There is no food in the country and hunger is becoming a
real
problem, the Reserve Bank has been looted and I understand that enough
foreign exchange has been taken out to supply the countries needs for
all
basic foods for 12 months. It is an absolute disgrace and to think they
still want to hang onto power!
What has become clear over the past week is that Zanu PF can no longer
command what happens in the administration, power is slipping away and
they
are already yesterdays men. It is also clear that the army and the
police
are both divided in their loyalties and now support change. This was
the
last pillar of support for the Zanu PF regime and with this gone it is
just
a matter of time.
The region is playing a key role and is trying to persuade Mr. Mugabe
to
step down and allow a peaceful transition. Mugabe is not co-operating
and it
is time regional leaders stepped up the pressure. As for the UN, this
august
body has yet to comment and do anything effective - must we slide
into
complete chaos and anarchy before they become engaged? Thabo Mbeki is
in the
UK for a summit of leaders - I am sure he is getting it with both
barrels.
Last night Aziz Pahad was jousting with Kate Hoey - wish I could have
seen
that contest.
But for the rest, thank you to all who stood with us - through the
criticism
of our stand and strategy, through the long nights of despair and
finally
doing the hard work that will make democracy the tool we used to bring
down
a corrupt and cruel tyrant. We showed it could be done - not with
guns and
bullets, not with fire and machete's, just with the quiet strength of
ordinary men and women going out and voting when they got the
opportunity.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 6th April 2008
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