2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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Jesse
You will recall my analogy of a wounded buffalo. For those who do not
know
Africa or Zimbabwe in particular, there is another aspect or
possibility to
the behavior of this badly wounded animal that sometimes plays itself
out.
In the Zambezi valley you find many different types of bushveld. It is
famous for the large stands of mature mopani set in open grassland and
harboring all sorts of wild life. One such system allows the Zambezi
lovebirds to breed in the tops of mature mopani but only when it is
associated with permanent open water. Another system that is almost
unique
to the Valley is the Jesse (pronounced jessy)
The Jess grows on rich alluvial soils with a sand base. It comprises
millions of large shrub like plants that grow up to 3 or 4 metres high,
it
is interspersed with larger trees that stand like islands in a green
lush
sea. In winter the Jesse drops it leaves and visibility can be quite
good -
50 metres or more. In summer, the shrubs produce prolific leafage and
visibility can be down to a couple of metres. When it is like this it
becomes a favorite haunt of many wild life species and of course
elephant.
The Ranger, when I worked in the Valley was a man I knew as 'Lofty'
Stokes.
He was called Lofty because he stood well over six feet. On one
occasion he
had to go after an elephant that had been shot raiding crops and had
retreated into the Jesse. Visibility was zero and Lofty and his
assistant
tracked the animal into the Jesse, using a small bag of fine ash to
test the
wind direction. An elephant has excellent hearing and smell and any
wind
from the hunter to the hunted could spell disaster in these conditions.
Eventually he felt that the animal was close and stopped to listen -
he
could hear its stomach rumbling but despite the proximity could not see
a
thing.
If such a retreat is available, a wounded buffalo will almost always
run
deep into its shelter and protection. With his senses a hunter would be
very
foolish to attempt what Lofty had done and to try and finish him off in
those conditions. He is better off waiting either for the animal to
leave
the security of the Jesse or to try and drive him out of the shelter
into
more open country where a final shot could be attempted.
Mugabe has been fatally wounded and has retreated into the Jesse. He
did so
when he shut down the ZEC National Control Center and moved it to a
secure
location where it continues to work behind closed doors. Today they
move
deeper into the Jesse by holding recounts in 23 constituencies. They
are
regrouping after the original hit.
They have had control of the results and the ballot boxes for three
weeks.
They have been working furiously to doctor the ballot boxes they have
targeted and I have no doubt that they will announce - perhaps next
week,
that hey presto! the original count done so carefully in front of
observers
3 weeks ago had been very seriously wrong! They will then declare that
they
have a majority in the House of Assembly and that the original hit was
not
fatal, just a serious flesh wound and that a run-off will take place in
21
days.
Already they are planning their strategies for when they have to leave
the
safety of the Jesse and face their dreaded hunter with the guns. They
have
deployed their foot soldiers to all areas of the country where they are
beating and killing MDC supporters. They are tightening their control
over
the media, the food system and they are threatening whole communities
with
starvation if they do not cower down and vote for Mugabe. They are
threatening traditional leaders and others with influence and if
necessary
are destroying their assets and even driving them into the towns where
they
will not be able to influence others or even vote.
As for preparations for the final showdown with the MDC they are
printing
ballots - lots of them. They are reviewing the system used last time
to see
where they made mistakes and closing loopholes. They are trying to
ensure
that this time they can defend themselves and win. Indeed they have to
think
they can win or they will not leave the Jesse and simply face up to a
slow
death.
Despite the fact that this whole exercise is a complete sham, condemned
by
every democratic government in the world, they will probably get away
with
this subterfuge. South Africa is playing along under its illustrious
leadership as are the majority of the SADC and African States with some
notable exceptions. MDC is beating the bush with its supporters around
the
world and in the region, but that old buffalo is not going to leave the
Jesse until he is good and ready to rumble.
The MDC has little choice but to go with the run-off. We must try to
prepare
the ground as best that we can, not knowing where the old buffalo will
come
out and in what condition he will be or even if he will have support.
One
type of support we already know about is the 77 tonnes of arms on a
ship
that tried to dock in Durban 4 days ago and has now left for
Mozambique. If
this consignment is allowed to reach the Mugabe regime with its
millions of
rounds of ammunition, China and Mozambique are assisting in genocide.
So we have little choice but to demand of the UN and SADC that they
honor
their commitment to see that the final contest is fair and that the
balloting is transparent and conducted properly under our new Electoral
Act
and regulations. Observer missions must be in place for this and must
be
credible. The observer team dispatched today under the leadership of
South
Africa to observe the recount is simply not credible - they are
whitewashing
a massive untruth.
Do I think that we can win such a skewed contest? Yes I do. After 8
years we
know our adversary well and our intelligence is so much better than it
was
previously. We also know the ground on which this contest will take
place
and that our target is a seriously wounded animal. But we have to
prepare
ourselves and be careful and alert and in particular use that small bag
of
ash to ensure he does not know where the hunter is when he comes out of
the
Jesse.
Once this old buffalo is out in more open country and does not have the
protection of the Jesse, he is ours. I think you have seen that this
time
round the MDC is much more confident of itself; its making good
tactical
decisions and handling itself with maturity and skill. We are a
dangerous
hunter and are determined that this time our quarry will not get away
from
us and will get his due.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 19th April 2008
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