2008 Articles 25 Dec Kingdom Come 21 Dec Christmas 15 Dec Step Forward 5 Dec Beginning 1 Dec Amendment 30 Nov Facilitation 26 Nov Genocide 24 Nov Running Out 17 Nov Crisis 15 Nov Somalia 12 Nov What Next? 8 Nov Leadership 2 Nov Chipo 1 Nov Rome Burns 29 Oct Failure 25 Oct High Noon 19 Oct Never Easy 10 Oct Abyss 8 Oct Filibustering 4 Oct Chaos in Zim 29 Sept A Mule? 21 Sept On Step 16 Sept The End 12 Sept New Beginning 11 Sept Deal? 6 Sept Consequences 3 Sept Need a Deal 2 Sept Dollar Died 31 Aug Steering 29 Aug Unstuck 23 Aug Betrayed 18 Aug The Devil 13 Aug 13 Aug 08 12 Aug Today 11 Aug Cliffhanger 8 Aug Whats Going On 27 Jul Progress 22 Jul Agree to talk 21 Jul Mbeki kicks 16 Jul Crunch Time 13 Jul Economics 9 Jul Reality Looms 2 Jul Where? 30 Jun Looking Glass 26 Jun Battle 22 Jun What Now? 21 Jun The Commitment 16 Jun Do or Die 13 Jun Morning After 10 Jun Closing Doors 26 May Current Outlook 24 May Fan Club 19 May Tyranny 17 May End Game 15 May Flushing 8 May Violence 6 May Bizarre Process 25 Apr Cornered 20 Apr Electoral Fraud 19 Apr Jesse 17 Apr This Farce 11 Apr The Devil 6 Apr Wounded Buffalo 1 Apr Dying Kick 31 Mar Politcl Tsunami 27 Mar Current Situ. 26 Mar 4 days to go 21 Mar 8 days to go 15 Mar Election Time 27 Feb Games Begin 17 Feb Public Office 11 Feb Choices 4 Feb Decision Time 26 Jan Ambushed 25 Jan The Struggle 20 Jan Truth or Fiction 12 Jan Mugabe Mistake 8 Jan Surprise 2 Jan Kenya Lessons
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Decision time
After 9 months of negotiation under the auspices of SADC, the MDC was
finally forced to make decisions as to what to do about the whole
electoral
process this weekend. Two sets of negotiation had been going on in
parallel - talks with Zanu PF under the facilitation of the South
African
government and talks with the Mutambara faction of the MDC in the hope
that
the Party might be reunified to fight the next election.
In the first process we had in fact made huge progress. A comprehensive
package of reforms - some of which have been implemented, was
negotiated,
giving us the chance of a free and fair electoral process if they were
implemented. Mugabe, who all along had been negotiating under duress,
was
eventually faced with the decision - allow these reforms through and
face
defeat or just tell his South African and SADC colleagues that they
were
asking too much - he decided on the latter.
Mbeki was forced to use his last option - to confront Mugabe's
refusal to
implement the deal negotiated at such expense and time at a meeting of
SADC
Heads of State. He did so last week at Addis on the sidelines of the AU
summit and we understand he pulled no punches. However in the end
Mugabe was
backed by three other Heads of State - Swaziland, Namibia and Angola
and
Mbeki came away with no decision - such a decision could only be
taken on a
consensual basis and 4 against censure and 8 in favor was just not
enough.
So when the MDC leadership gathered in Harare this weekend to consider
the
question of fighting the next election, now just two months away, it
was
against the background of a failed mediation effort by President Mbeki.
In
addition to this set back, we faced the reality that despite the
reforms
already adopted and passed through Parliament with our assistance, the
regime in Harare was maintaining its barrage of anti democratic
policies
against the MDC. Marches and rallies were being banned, there is no
sign of
any reform in the media and the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is
totally
under the control and direction of the Zanu PF led regime and was being
staffed with many of the old electoral management from the security
services.
The debate in the National Executive and then the Council was short and
when
the vote came to participate it was carried unanimously, there were no
dissenting voices. I was not surprised at all; I thought we never had
any
alternative. In answer to those who claimed that by running we were
going to
actually legitimize a rigged election, the President stated that to the
contrary, the only way to demonstrate the illegitimate nature of the
regime
would be to contest every seat and make sure that they have to rig
massively
to get a result in their favor.
So now we have 5 days to put up nearly 2000 candidates under the MDC
banner.
That is no small task and it's just as well we anticipated this
decision and
are far down the road on this one. I do not think we will get a
candidate
into every Rural District Council seat but we will contest every Urban
Council seat and every Parliamentary and Senatorial seat, plus the
Presidency. We launch the campaign on the 17th February in Mutare.
On the second track of negotiations that we were engaged in we had been
talking to the other faction of the MDC for over a year. Initially they
had
wanted a 'amicable divorce' but insisted on continuing to use the
MDC name
and symbols and we said that if they wanted to do so, then unity was
the
only route we would accept.
We have since negotiated a full reunification agreement and when the
election was announced, it was decided to translate that into an
electoral
pact that would take us past the elections and then going onto a
Congress
where the unification process would be completed. But the devil is
always in
the detail and when the MDC leadership was presented with the suggested
list
in terms of allocated seats, the whole deal fell apart.
It is now generally accepted that the group led by Mutambara is the
smaller
group, the crucial question is how much smaller? Obviously we felt that
it
is very much the junior player while they (understandably) do not
agree. Had
they accepted the selection of candidates by a democratic system there
would
have been no real argument - the decision as to who stood where would
be
left to the Party structures in the electoral districts concerned.
However
the Mutambara group feared that such a process would decimate their
representation (I agree) and refused to go down that path. In the end
I
guess failure was inevitable.
In the end we resolved to adopt the unity agreement with one or two
minor
amendments but to go back to the Mutambara group with a revised
allocation
of seats - one that our leadership felt was more realistic. The
Mutambara
group rejected this out of hand and we mutually decided to go it alone.
I
must say, although I had anticipated this outcome, I was astonished by
the
reaction - not only in the MDC itself but nationally. The decision
was
received favorably across the country.
So now - for better or worse, we will fight this election - the
Tsvangirai
led MDC joined by Zanu Ndonga will fight all seats and the Mutambara
group
will put up as many candidates as they can and run against us. There
will be
other Parties in the game - I know of 5 so far, perhaps with more to
come,
but in essence it will be the three-way scrap between Zanu PF and the
two
MDC groups that will receive most attention. Only the main wing of the
MDC
offers the chance of regime change and this puts all others at a severe
disadvantage, and they know it. There was a profound sense of gloom at
the
hotel where the Mutambara group was caucusing yesterday in Harare.
But at least we now know where we stand and this ends some of the
uncertainty. Our focus has to be on the campaign - explaining to the
voters
what we will do if elected and I am pleased with what we have done in
preparation for that. Then we must persuade people to turn out and vote
- a
steep hill to climb as the past decade has persuaded many that voting
is a
waste of time.
But our main task will be to stop Zanu PF doing a Kibaki on us -
stealing
the result when we have actually done enough to win.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 4th February 2008
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